La Salle

Conference:	A10
Expected RPI:	202.0
Current RPI:	202
Expected SOS:	111
Current SOS:	111
Current Record:	13-19
Expected Record:	13-19
Current Conf Record:	7-12
Expected Conf Record:	7-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	5-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	7-4
Current OOC Record:	6-7
Expected OOC Record:	6-7
Expected OOC RPI:	151
Expected OOC SOS:	58

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
13-19	202.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for La Salle.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	Saint Peter's (251.0)	MAAC	H	61-40	W	100%
11-13	Penn (112.0)	Ivy	A	71-75	W	100%
11-16	South Alabama (270.0)	SB	H	81-73	W	100%
11-18	Northwestern (168.0)	B10	N	82-74	L	0%
11-19	Boston College (96.0)	ACC	N	61-82	L	0%
11-22	Miami FL (28.0)	ACC	N	46-57	L	0%
11-26	Temple (52.0)	Amer	H	87-83	W	100%
12-1	Towson (153.0)	CAA	N	60-67	L	0%
12-2	Holy Cross (265.0)	Pat	N	58-54	W	100%
12-7	Drexel (242.0)	CAA	H	70-72	L	0%
12-10	Villanova (2.0)	BE	A	77-68	L	0%
12-17	Mercer (174.0)	SC	H	95-85	W	100%
12-22	Bucknell (80.0)	Pat	A	88-81	L	0%
12-30	Saint Louis (148.0)	A10	H	83-60	W	100%
1-3	Rhode Island (19.0)	A10	A	74-62	L	0%
1-6	VCU (135.0)	A10	H	74-80	L	0%
1-10	Massachusetts (240.0)	A10	A	86-79	L	0%
1-13	Duquesne (259.0)	A10	A	101-94	L	0%
1-17	Fordham (290.0)	A10	H	75-67	W	100%
1-20	Richmond (176.0)	A10	A	81-74	L	0%
1-24	Massachusetts (240.0)	A10	H	87-72	W	100%
1-31	Davidson (47.0)	A10	A	84-65	L	0%
2-3	Saint Joseph's (147.0)	A10	H	81-78	W	100%
2-7	George Washington (195.0)	A10	A	80-69	L	0%
2-10	Saint Louis (148.0)	A10	A	70-62	L	0%
2-13	St. Bonaventure (24.0)	A10	H	68-79	L	0%
2-17	George Mason (201.0)	A10	H	69-62	W	100%
2-20	Rhode Island (19.0)	A10	H	93-95	L	0%
2-24	Fordham (290.0)	A10	A	60-73	W	100%
2-28	Dayton (146.0)	A10	H	71-53	W	100%
3-3	Saint Joseph's (147.0)	A10	A	78-70	L	0%
3-7	Massachusetts (240.0)	A10	N	67-69	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

La Salle's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

La Salle's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against La Salle.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
La Salle	A10	26.12	26.12	37.12	37.12	-6.73	-6.73
Massachusetts	A10	5.27	5.27	36.67	36.67	-1.41	-1.41
Saint Joseph's	A10	3.88	3.88	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Rhode Island	A10	3.81	3.81	76.67	76.67	2.03	2.03
Saint Louis	A10	3.68	3.68	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Fordham	A10	3.68	3.68	31.03	31.03	-1.40	-1.40
George Mason	A10	2.31	2.31	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Davidson	A10	2.29	2.29	64.52	64.52	0.67	0.67
George Washington	A10	2.27	2.27	43.75	43.75	-0.28	-0.28
Dayton	A10	2.26	2.26	46.67	46.67	-0.15	-0.15
VCU	A10	2.24	2.24	53.12	53.12	0.14	0.14
St. Bonaventure	A10	2.24	2.24	77.42	77.42	1.23	1.23
Richmond	A10	2.24	2.24	35.48	35.48	-0.65	-0.65
Duquesne	A10	2.20	2.20	48.39	48.39	-0.07	-0.07
Holy Cross	Pat	1.73	1.73	40.00	40.00	-0.35	-0.35
Penn	Ivy	1.71	1.71	76.67	76.67	0.91	0.91
Bucknell	Pat	1.71	1.71	72.73	72.73	0.78	0.78
Temple	Amer	1.71	1.71	54.84	54.84	0.17	0.17
Drexel	CAA	1.67	1.67	35.48	35.48	-0.48	-0.48
Villanova	BE	1.66	1.66	87.88	87.88	1.26	1.26
Boston College	ACC	1.64	1.64	54.55	54.55	0.15	0.15
Towson	CAA	1.64	1.64	51.72	51.72	0.06	0.06
Miami FL	ACC	1.63	1.63	70.00	70.00	0.65	0.65
Saint Peter's	MAAC	1.61	1.61	45.16	45.16	-0.16	-0.16
Mercer	SC	1.59	1.59	55.17	55.17	0.16	0.16
Northwestern	B10	1.59	1.59	43.33	43.33	-0.21	-0.21
South Alabama	SB	1.59	1.59	41.38	41.38	-0.27	-0.27
Harvard	Ivy	0.29	0.29	56.67	56.67	0.04	0.04
Providence	BE	0.26	0.26	61.76	61.76	0.06	0.06
Maine	AE	0.22	0.22	13.33	13.33	-0.16	-0.16
Lafayette	Pat	0.22	0.22	30.00	30.00	-0.09	-0.09
Loyola MD	Pat	0.19	0.19	26.67	26.67	-0.09	-0.09
College of Charleston	CAA	0.17	0.17	77.42	77.42	0.10	0.10
James Madison	CAA	0.17	0.17	29.03	29.03	-0.07	-0.07
Navy	Pat	0.17	0.17	61.29	61.29	0.04	0.04
Florida St.	ACC	0.17	0.17	64.52	64.52	0.05	0.05
Colgate	Pat	0.17	0.17	58.06	58.06	0.03	0.03
William & Mary	CAA	0.15	0.15	58.62	58.62	0.03	0.03
Tulane	Amer	0.15	0.15	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.15	0.15	60.00	60.00	0.03	0.03
Georgia St.	SB	0.15	0.15	68.75	68.75	0.06	0.06
Northeastern	CAA	0.15	0.15	68.75	68.75	0.06	0.06
Princeton	Ivy	0.15	0.15	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Iona	MAAC	0.15	0.15	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Minnesota	B10	0.15	0.15	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.15	0.15	93.94	93.94	0.13	0.13
Boston University	Pat	0.14	0.14	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.14	0.14	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.14	0.14	36.36	36.36	-0.04	-0.04
Seton Hall	BE	0.14	0.14	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Manhattan	MAAC	0.13	0.13	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.13	0.13	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Elon	CAA	0.13	0.13	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.13	0.13	30.00	30.00	-0.05	-0.05
VMI	SC	0.12	0.12	25.00	25.00	-0.06	-0.06
Brown	Ivy	0.12	0.12	38.46	38.46	-0.03	-0.03
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.12	0.12	25.00	25.00	-0.06	-0.06
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.12	0.12	78.12	78.12	0.07	0.07
Western Carolina	SC	0.12	0.12	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Penn St.	B10	0.12	0.12	61.76	61.76	0.03	0.03
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.12	0.12	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Houston	Amer	0.12	0.12	78.79	78.79	0.07	0.07
Monmouth	MAAC	0.12	0.12	35.48	35.48	-0.04	-0.04
Siena	MAAC	0.12	0.12	25.00	25.00	-0.06	-0.06
Rider	MAAC	0.12	0.12	70.97	70.97	0.05	0.05
North Carolina	ACC	0.12	0.12	71.43	71.43	0.05	0.05
Butler	BE	0.12	0.12	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.10	0.10	71.88	71.88	0.04	0.04
Georgia Southern	SB	0.10	0.10	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.10	0.10	24.24	24.24	-0.05	-0.05
Appalachian St.	SB	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Yale	Ivy	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.10	0.10	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Maryland	B10	0.10	0.10	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.10	0.10	30.00	30.00	-0.04	-0.04
Columbia	Ivy	0.10	0.10	26.92	26.92	-0.04	-0.04
American	Pat	0.10	0.10	20.00	20.00	-0.06	-0.06
Army	Pat	0.10	0.10	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.10	0.10	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Lehigh	Pat	0.10	0.10	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Clemson	ACC	0.10	0.10	71.88	71.88	0.04	0.04
Syracuse	ACC	0.10	0.10	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.10	0.10	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
St. John's	BE	0.09	0.09	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Marquette	BE	0.09	0.09	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Troy	SB	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Wofford	SC	0.08	0.08	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.08	0.08	80.65	80.65	0.05	0.05
Rutgers	B10	0.08	0.08	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.07	0.07	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
UCF	Amer	0.07	0.07	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.07	0.07	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.07	0.07	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.07	0.07	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.07	0.07	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Michigan	B10	0.07	0.07	79.41	79.41	0.04	0.04
Toledo	MAC	0.07	0.07	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.07	0.07	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.07	0.07	23.08	23.08	-0.04	-0.04
Auburn	SEC	0.07	0.07	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Canisius	MAAC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Cincinnati	Amer	0.07	0.07	88.24	88.24	0.06	0.06
Nevada	MWC	0.07	0.07	79.41	79.41	0.04	0.04
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.07	0.07	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Wichita St.	Amer	0.07	0.07	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Wake Forest	ACC	0.07	0.07	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Louisville	ACC	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Connecticut	Amer	0.07	0.07	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Vermont	AE	0.07	0.07	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Creighton	BE	0.07	0.07	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
DePaul	BE	0.07	0.07	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Notre Dame	ACC	0.07	0.07	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
BYU	WCC	0.07	0.07	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
UMass Lowell	AE	0.07	0.07	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Xavier	BE	0.07	0.07	84.85	84.85	0.05	0.05
Chattanooga	SC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Furman	SC	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Samford	SC	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
The Citadel	SC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
UNC Greensboro	SC	0.05	0.05	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Memphis	Amer	0.05	0.05	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Miami OH	MAC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
West Virginia	B12	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Akron	MAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	6.67	6.67	-0.04	-0.04
Fairfield	MAAC	0.05	0.05	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Hawaii	BW	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	83.33	83.33	0.03	0.03
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.02	-0.02
New Hampshire	AE	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
North Florida	ASun	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Marist	MAAC	0.05	0.05	19.35	19.35	-0.03	-0.03
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.05	16.67	16.67	-0.03	-0.03
Murray St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	82.76	82.76	0.03	0.03
Oregon St.	P12	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	16.67	16.67	-0.03	-0.03
Seattle	WAC	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Tulsa	Amer	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Nebraska	B10	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Arkansas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado	P12	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
FIU	CUSA	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Little Rock	SB	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
New Orleans	Slnd	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Oakland	Horz	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Texas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
UMBC	AE	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
UT Arlington	SB	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Albany	AE	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Chicago St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	3.33	3.33	-0.02	-0.02
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Indiana	B10	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
Michigan St.	B10	0.03	0.03	87.88	87.88	0.02	0.02
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.03	0.03	76.67	76.67	0.01	0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Ohio St.	B10	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Purdue	B10	0.03	0.03	82.35	82.35	0.02	0.02
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
UMKC	WAC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Valparaiso	MVC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Wagner	NEC	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.02	0.02	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.02	0.02	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.02	0.02	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Charlotte	CUSA	0.02	0.02	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
Drake	MVC	0.02	0.02	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
East Carolina	Amer	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.02	0.02	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.02	0.02	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.02	0.02	12.50	12.50	-0.02	-0.02
NJIT	ASun	0.02	0.02	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
San Francisco	WCC	0.02	0.02	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
SMU	Amer	0.02	0.02	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
South Florida	Amer	0.02	0.02	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
TCU	B12	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Binghamton	AE	0.02	0.02	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.02	0.02	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
California	P12	0.02	0.02	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Fresno St.	MWC	0.02	0.02	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.02	0.02	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Hampton	MEAC	0.02	0.02	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Kansas St.	B12	0.02	0.02	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.02	0.02	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.02	0.02	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Texas	B12	0.02	0.02	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Winthrop	BSth	0.02	0.02	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Arkansas	SEC	0.02	0.02	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.02	0.02	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Gonzaga	WCC	0.02	0.02	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Hartford	AE	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.02	0.02	60.71	60.71	0.00	0.00
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.02	0.02	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Stony Brook	AE	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.02	0.02	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01